Projecting when every NFL team will lose its first game in 2023
All 32 NFL teams would like nothing more than to run the table and put together an undefeated season, but no one has been able to match the 1972 Miami Dolphins. With the 2023 season drawing closer, here’s a look at the likely first loss for each team.
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Arizona Cardinals: Week 1 at Commanders
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Kyler Murray isn’t expected to be ready for the start of the season, and it was already shaping up to be a long year for Arizona with new head coach Jonathan Gannon and a major loss of talent in the offseason. Colt McCoy will likely start under center against a Washington squad with a stacked front seven and Eric Bieniemy’s revamped offense. The Cardinals can keep the game close vs. rookie quarterback Sam Howell, but Washington will prevail on the road.
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Atlanta Falcons: Week 2 vs. Packers

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Atlanta is expected to run, run, and run some more after drafting running back Bijan Robinson. They get the advantage of facing rookie Panthers quarterback Bryce Young in his first start in Week 1, but the Packers stand as a bigger obstacle in Week 2 with a talented defense and established running game.
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Baltimore Ravens: Week 2 at Bengals

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Baltimore is the biggest favorite of Week 1 with a gimme matchup vs. the upstart Texans, but the task becomes more difficult in Week 2 at Cincinnati. Lamar Jackson could need time to get comfortable in Todd Monken’s offense, and the Ravens defense has seen some significant turnover in the pass rush and at cornerback. There’s an opportunity for Joe Burrow and company to feast.
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Buffalo Bills: Week 1 at Jets

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The Bills take on the Aaron Rodgers Jets on Monday Night Football in Week 1 in what could be the game of the week. Buffalo fell in New York last season, as the Jets defense was able to hold Josh Allen to only 205 yards passing. With Aaron Rodgers giving the Jets an ability to stay in games offensively, another strong defensive performance should be enough for the former Packers quarterback to emerge in his Big Apple debut.
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Carolina Panthers: Week 1 at Falcons

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Bryce Young is set to debut in Week 1, and it’s rare that a rookie quarterback is comfortable at the start of the season. That will be an issue on the road against a Falcons team that should enjoy a time of possession advantage with their run-heavy offense. The Week 1 game could be pivotal in the wide-open NFC South division.
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Chicago Bears: Week 1 vs. Packers

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The Bears have regularly been bullied by Green Bay recently, but hope that changes with Aaron Rodgers gone. Chicago has added significant talent on both sides of the ball, but the Packers running game and defense are seasoned. Jordan Love should be able to get off to a nice start against a Bears squad with so many new faces.
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Cincinnati Bengals: Week 4 at Titans

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There’s some nervousness for Cincinnati early in the year after Joe Burrow suffered a calf injury early in training camp, but he’s expected to be ready for Week 1. Neither the Week 1 visit to Cleveland nor Week 2 vs. Baltimore will be easy. If they can make it through those challenges, the next big challenge is a road game vs. Tennessee in Week 4. The Titans have seen major turnover on both sides of the ball, but the offense should be able to play efficiently with Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry, and DeAndre Hopkins. If they can avoid turnovers, an upset could be in order.
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Cleveland Browns: Week 1 vs. Bengals

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Cleveland has high hopes after Deshaun Watson had more time to get settled, but Week 1 is a brutal matchup with the defending division champs. The pairing of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins have the ability to expose Cleveland’s secondary again, though the teams split the season series last season.
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Dallas Cowboys: Week 4 vs. Patriots

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Dallas opens their season back-to-back against New York teams with a visit to the Giants, followed by hosting the Jets. If they can overcome those games, Week 3 is easier with a visit to Arizona. The Cowboys offense should be challenged by Bill Belichick’s defense in Week 4, and the Patriots offense could be improved with Bill O’Brien calling plays for Mac Jones and company. A Week 4 loss would put the Cowboys at risk of a major slide, as they visit the 49ers and Chargers in the following two games before their Week 7 bye.
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Denver Broncos: Week 3 at Dolphins

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History shows the Broncos have a decided advantage early in the season at home, with the Denver elevation plaguing opponents’ conditioning. Fortunately for new head coach Sean Payton, the Broncos start the season with winnable home games vs. Las Vegas and Washington. The big challenge comes in Week 3 with a visit to Miami and Mike McDaniel’s explosive offense. It remains to be seen if Russell Wilson is capable of keeping up after last year’s struggles.
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Detroit Lions: Week 1 at Chiefs

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The Lions are a trendy pick for a breakout season after the offensive improvement they showed last year, but they could be knocked off their perch in the season opener vs. the defending Super Bowl Champs. Detroit made several defensive additions, but it could take time for the Lions defense to round into form. Facing Patrick Mahomes is a huge test for Jared Goff along with the defense.
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Green Bay Packers: Week 4 vs. Lions

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Despite going on the road in their first two games, the Packers and Jordan Love have a chance to start on a positive note at Chicago and Atlanta. The home opener vs. New Orleans is another winnable game, but Week 4 vs. Detroit will be a huge obstacle for the Packers defense. The Lions defeated Green Bay twice last season with a hard-nosed style and big plays at critical moments.
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Houston Texans: Week 1 at Ravens

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There’s finally optimism in Houston with new head coach DeMeco Ryans, but it will take time to develop his young team. Baltimore has traditionally been a bully in Week 1, and this game is shaping up to continue that trend as C.J. Stroud tries to get his feet under him in his first career start.
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Indianapolis Colts: Week 1 vs. Jaguars

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The Colts had major roster issues last year that aren’t fixed, and there’s been plenty of drama during training camp with Jonathan Taylor demanding a trade. Add in questions about the readiness of rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson, and the Colts could be facing a disaster against the defending AFC South champs in Week 1.
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Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 2 vs. Chiefs

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Jacksonville was one of the league’s breakout teams last year, and appear to be ascending with Trevor Lawrence at quarterback. The team should have their way in Week 1 against a rebuilding Colts squad, but their Divisional Round rematch vs. the Chiefs in Week 2 will be a true test. It’s poor timing for Jacksonville as left tackle Cam Robinson will be out due to suspension, so Lawrence and the defense will need to be at their best to have a shot.
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Kansas City Chiefs: Week 6 vs. Broncos

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The Chiefs are the Super Bowl favorites, but the target will be on their backs with a tough early schedule that includes visits to the Jaguars, Jets, and Vikings. KC’s first division game is in Week 6 against Denver. While the team has dominated the Broncos in recent seasons, the contest puts both teams in a pinch on a short-week Thursday night affair. With the lack of preparation for both teams, anything could happen, including a Broncos upset victory over Patrick Mahomes.
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Las Vegas Raiders: Week 1 at Broncos

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Coming off an injury, new Raiders quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is expected to be ready for the start of the year. His conditioning could still be called into question, especially with a visit at altitude in Denver. The Broncos have the advantage early in altitude, and there’s significant optimism for Sean Payton’s first game as head coach.
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Los Angeles Chargers: Week 1 vs. Dolphins

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The Chargers have very high hopes this season with new coordinators. They could bring the unexpected to Week 1 vs. Miami, but a healthy Tua Tagovailoa proved hard to beat last season. The Week 1 matchup is shaping up to be a shootout between Justin Herbert and Tagovailoa, and Tyreek Hill’s history of burning the Chargers defense could be on full display again.
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Los Angeles Rams: Week 1 at Seahawks

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The Rams roster has seen major turnover, and are outmanned against most opponents with the exception of Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald. An excellent offseason from the Seahawks creates a huge discrepancy in talent for this matchup, and Seattle remains one of the toughest places for visitors to play.
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Miami Dolphins: Week 4 at Bills

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Miami’s brutal early schedule includes visits to the Chargers, Patriots, and Bills in three for the first four weeks. Fortunately, Tua Tagovailoa enters the year healthy, so the Dolphins are highly capable of keeping up with opponents. It could take time for new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s defense to get comfortable, and keeping up with the Bills on the road is a task that could be unrealistic.
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Minnesota Vikings: Week 2 at Eagles

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Minnesota was one of the luckiest teams in the NFL last season, easily winning the NFC North despite a negative point differential. Their defense is likely to remain leaky early in the year, even with new coordinator Brian Flores, but a Week 1 home game vs. the Bucs isn’t much of a test. Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, and company will need to be at their best in Week at Philly, however, which happens to be a repeat scenario to their blowout 24-7 loss in Week 2 last season.
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New England Patriots: Week 1 vs. Eagles

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In a rematch of two Super Bowls from this century, the Pats will have their hands full against the defending NFC champs. Mac Jones could be allowed to unleash with new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien, but Bill Belichick will need his best defensive game plan to stop Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense.
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New Orleans Saints: Week 1 vs. Titans

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The Derek Carr era in New Orleans starts against the Titans, who saw major turnover in their roster during the offseason. The Big Easy should be rocking, but the absence of Alvin Kamara and a hard-nosed Titans front seven pose big challenges for Carr. This game could come down to the wire.
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New York Giants: Week 1 vs. Cowboys

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Despite their surprise success last season, the Giants lost both matchups against Dallas. Daniel Jones and the Giants offense were unable to keep up with the Cowboys, and there’s not much reason to think that will change despite the addition of tight end Darren Waller. New York will need to do a better job stopping the run than the last head-to-head matchup, when Dallas ran for 169 yards and two touchdowns.
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New York Jets: Week 2 at Cowboys

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Aaron Rodgers won’t have time to get comfortable with his new team, as the Jets open with a brutal schedule that includes Buffalo, Dallas, New England, KC, Denver, and Philadelphia before the bye. An electric home opener against the Bills could be a toss-up, but the Week 2 visit to Dallas could be an even bigger challenge as the new offense under Rodgers contends with a raucous crowd. There is some anxiety over New York’s offensive line, an area Micah Parsons and the Cowboys can exploit.
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Philadelphia Eagles: Week 6 at Jets

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The defending NFC Champs will see a relatively soft landing early in the season, with an opened schedule that includes the Patriots, Vikings, Buccaneers, Commanders, and Rams. It’s realistic to expect the Eagles to run the table through five weeks, but a visit to the Jets and Aaron Rodgers in Week 6 will be tough. New York profiled as one of the top defenses in the league last season, and Aaron Rodgers should help the Jets get vertical against an Eagles secondary with new faces at safety. The matchup between wideout A.J. Brown and cornerback Sauce Gardner should be fun to watch.
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Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 1 vs. 49ers

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The Steelers pulled off a stunner vs. the Bengals in Week 1 last season and hope to do the same against the 49ers this season. Brock Purdy is expected to be healthy for the opener with his full complement of weapons, including Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle. Pittsburgh needs to see immediate strides from second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett to have a real chance, with the 49ers continuing to look like one of the top defenses in the NFL.
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San Francisco 49ers: Week 8 vs. Bengals

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The 49ers fell short in the NFC Championship largely due to Brock Purdy’s injury. Purdy is back, and the team has reloaded in the offseason by signing star interior pass rusher Javon Hargrave. The team’s early schedule looks very winnable, including matchups against the Steelers, Rams, Giants, Cardinals, Cowboys, Browns, and Vikings. A visit to Cincinnati is the team’s toughest prior to the bye and could be a Super Bowl preview. San Francisco can bully Cincinnati’s offensive line, but Joe Burrow has the ability to overcome the 49ers defense at home. We didn’t get many chances to see Purdy’s comeback ability in his brief rookie campaign, though it could be needed by Week 8.
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Seattle Seahawks: Week 2 at Lions

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Seattle has been under the radar in the offseason, loading up on talent. They have an easy task with a home game against the Rams in Week 1, but a visit to the high-powered Lions in Week 2 is much tougher. Detroit had a breakout season as one of the top offenses in the league last year, so Geno Smith could be required to perform in a shootout.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 1 at Vikings

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The 2022 season was a mess for the Bucs despite making the playoffs, and this season looks even more dire with starting quarterback Baker Mayfield and a defense that’s taken major hits. The Vikings defense doesn’t pose a huge threat, but it could be difficult for the young Bucs front seven to pressure Kirk Cousins on the road.
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Tennessee Titans: Week 2 vs. Chargers

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Despite major turnover on both sides of the ball, head coach Mike Vrabel should have his team ready for a Week 1 visit to New Orleans. The Titans home opener could be even more difficult, with a high-powered Chargers offense led by Justin Herbert and an excellent pass rush. Derrick Henry will likely get a heavy workload against a Chargers team that couldn’t stop the run last season, but it remains to be seen if the secondary will be ready to stop Herbert after their struggles last season.
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Washington Commanders: Week 2 at Broncos

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Washington has a winnable Week 1 matchup against the Cardinals, giving Sam Howell an opportunity to get off on the right foot. The Week 2 visit to Denver is far tougher, as the team will play at altitude vs. what could be a revamped offense under Sean Payton. Washington’s defense is capable, but it remains to be seen if Eric Bieniemy’s offense will be up for the challenge so early in the season.
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