Last week had only one big favorite (Seattle), but Week 15 features five different games with a team favored to win by 10 points or more and several other games feature teams favored by more than a touchdown.That dynamic provides more pick options in NFL survivor pools, but it also makes it more difficult to differentiate your picks in pick ’em pools.
If you are trailing slightly in a season long pick ’em contest, you might need to take some chances this week to catch up. We highlight some of the best opportunities to do so below.
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Week 15 NFL Picks Advice: Tips for Pick ’em Pools
Note: Win odds and estimated pick popularity data below may change between publication time and kickoff time. If you want the latest numbers, our product updates multiple times per day.
New England Patriots (at Miami)
Our first game is the divisional matchup between the Patriots and Dolphins, where the public is very heavily on Miami (84-percent popularity) even though the spread on this one is about even. In fact, the one-point line is the closest game by point spread this week, and this is the only game with a point spread under a field goal as of Wednesday. With the public’s pick distribution going five-to-one in favor of Miami, New England provides a great contrarian pick opportunity if you are needing to make up ground on a leader in your pool.
The Patriots are playing to keep alive any hope of a playoff berth, while Miami is also in what amounts to close to a must-win game for their playoff chances. But the point spread in this game, which used to be New England +2.5, has recently moved in New England’s favor.
New Orleans Saints (vs. Kansas City)
The best matchup of the week features the 12-1 Chiefs against the 10-3 Saints. For all of its wins this season, Kansas City has been letting teams hang around and keep games close.
New Orleans, meanwhile, is coming off a big upset loss to Philadelphia last week. So, it’s no surprise the public is very heavily on KC (83-percent pick popularity) in this one, providing an opportunity to gain ground on the vast majority of your pool if the Saints pull off a mild upset. (They are currently three-point underdogs.)
If you are outside of a prize position in your pool, this is an upset pick worth considering given the reasonable win odds and low popularity for New Orleans.
Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Las Vegas)
If you are looking for another gamble and you can stomach taking the Chargers and their end-of-half clock management miscues, then Los Angeles provides a lot of bang for the buck this week. The Chargers aren’t that big of an underdog (+3.5) to the rival Raiders, who have lost three out of four themselves and just fired their defensive coordinator.
But about nine out of every 10 pick ’em pool entries this week are on the Raiders, meaning you can make a gain in the standings against a large chunk of your pool with an upset here. It’s a lot of risk, but if you’re behind or in a weekly prize pool, it’s also probably one of the best contrarian opportunities left this season.
Taking all three picks above likely isn’t appropriate for all pool situations, since it would involve a lot of risk. It largely depends on factors such as where you are currently in the standings, and your pool’s payout structure.
To see the picks for every Week 15 game that maximize your odds to win your NFL pick ’em pool, check out the Football Pick ’em Picks product. It’s the only product available that customizes picks based on the dynamics of your specific pools.
Week 15 NFL Survivor Pool Advice
The Los Angeles Rams lead the way when it comes to pick popularity this week, though at just 24-percent popularity, they are still a good value against the Jets — if you have them available. However, there are several other big favorites to consider, including the Tennessee Titans (vs. Detroit), Baltimore Ravens (vs. Jacksonville), and Pittsburgh Steelers (at Cincinnati).
With just a few weeks left in the season, future value also is easier to gauge. Of the teams above, for example, Baltimore stands out as a team with choice matchups in both Week 16 and 17 and might be worth saving even if you have them available.
The Arizona Cardinals round out the five most popular choices this week, though they aren’t as big of a favorite as the other four. However, in certain types of pools, such as those that require double picks late in the season, you might have to consider a riskier pick like the Cardinals.
Keep in mind that the best Week 15 pick for your survivor pool this week depends on a lot of things, like how many entries are still alive, whether you face double picks in later weeks (or other non-standard rules), and what teams you’ve used so far. To see the top pick for your current situation, check out our NFL Survivor Picks product for customized advice.