With just two weeks until the first College Football Playoff rankings are unveiled, it’s safe to say we are entering the pivotal stretch of the 2020 season.
The Week 11 schedule, however, could use a do-over. There are no matchups between teams ranked in the AP Top 25; which could be a hangover after the loaded week that just happened.
MORE: Week 11 bowl projections
There are still some interesting spots on the schedule. No. 13 Wisconsin faces Michigan on the road. Meanwhile, No. 2 Notre Dame will look to avoid an upset against Boston College.
We were 15-3 record against the spread last week, but we missed the ranked matchups involving Notre Dame, Indiana and Florida. Here is a look at our full-season results.
Last week: 14-4 S/U, 15-3 ATS
Overall: 104-33 S/U, 73-57 ATS
Top 25: 94-28 S/U, 68-53 ATS
Now, a look at our picks against the spread for Week 10.
Week 11 picks against the spread
Friday, Nov. 13
- East Carolina at No. 7 Cincinnati (-27)
The Bearcats have covered each of the past three weeks, but they are 0-2 ATS this season when favored by 20-plus points. The Pirates lost a 46-43 shootout to the Bearcats last season, but they also lost by 50 points in their last visit to Nippert Stadium in 2018.
Pick: Cincinnati wins 41-16 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
Saturday, Nov. 14
- No. 10 Indiana (-7.5) at Michigan State
It’s impossible to know which Michigan State team will show up, even at home. The Spartans have won three of the past four meetings in the series, and three of the past four have been decided by 10 points or fewer. Will Indiana be looking ahead to Ohio State?
Pick: Indiana wins 28-24 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- No. 9 Miami at Virginia Tech (-2.5)
The Hurricanes are the underdogs in this game, which is a head-scratching spread knowing the Hokies just lost 38-35 at home to Liberty. D’Eriq King led Miami past N.C. State in a thriller last week. He’s the best player on the field in yet another big victory for the Hurricanes here.
Pick: Miami wins 31-27 in an UPSET.
- Middle Tennessee State at No. 16 Marshall (-23)
Marshall isn’t getting talked about as much as the other unbeaten Group of 5 teams, and they catch a Middle Tennessee State defense that allows 37.1 points per game. The Blue Raiders, however, have managed to score 34.3 points per game in their past three games.
Pick: Marshall wins 45-24 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- South Alabama at No. 25 Louisiana (-15.5)
The Ragin’ Cajuns are back in the AP Top 25, but none of those past three victories are by more than 10 points. The Jaguars have protected the football well enough this season to hang around in this Sun Belt matchup.
Pick: Louisiana wins 28-16 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- No. 20 USC (-14) at Arizona
The Wildcats have not played yet, and they face a USC team that won this matchup 41-14 last season. Kedon Slovis passed for 381 yards in the Trojans’ opener and keeps that rolling in Tucson.
Pick: USC wins 34-17 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 2 Notre Dame (-13.5) at Boston College
There will be comparisons to Boston College’s legendary upset of Notre Dame in 1993, but the Irish have won the past two meetings in this series by an average of 31 points. That said, the Eagles played North Carolina and Clemson tough. They hang around again at home.
Pick: Notre Dame wins 31-21 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- No. 3 Ohio State (-27) at Maryland
The Buckeyes are 2-1 ATS and would have covered against Rutgers last week if not for a second-half letdown. Maryland has averaged 40 points per game the past two weeks, but it’s the same team that lost to Northwestern by 40 points in its opener. Stick with the juggernaut.
Pick: Ohio State wins 49-20 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 13 Wisconsin (-2.5) at Michigan
Wisconsin returns after a three-week layoff, and it’s worth noting that Paul Chryst is 0-2 at Michigan Stadium. The Wolverines, however, have issues on both sides of the ball that the Badgers can expose. If Michigan cannot run the ball, then it’s going to be a long night in the Big House.
Pick: Wisconsin wins 28-20 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 19 SMU (-2.5) at Tulsa
The top two teams in the AAC West meet, and the Golden Hurricane have a chance to make a statement at home. The line will go up, however, and the Mustangs will take another step toward a conference championship berth.
Pick: SMU wins 34-28 and COVERS the spread.
- Arkansas at No. 6 Florida (-17.5)
The Gators face a potential letdown spot against a plucky Arkansas team that is 6-0 ATS this season. Kyle Trask will give the Hogs’ secondary fits, but Arkansas will continue that streak with another hard-fought cover.
Pick: Florida wins 38-22 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- Washington State at No. 11 Oregon (-8.5)
The Ducks have a quarterback in Tyler Shough, and the defense should be able to force a few turnovers against Washington State. The Cougars were impressive in their opener, but the Ducks are playing for a larger prize.
Pick: Oregon wins 37-20 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 23 Northwestern (-2.5) at Purdue
This is a battle of surprise Big Ten West sleepers, and it’s an interesting quarterback battle between Aidan O’Connell and Peyton Ramsey. Purdue had an extra week to prepare, and that will spring a light upset.
Pick: Purdue wins 24-23 in an UPSET.